Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 271629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across
northern New England and portions of the Ohio Valley this afternoon
and evening, accompanied by a local risk for gusty/potentially
damaging winds.
...Northern New England...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across Quebec Province this
afternoon as an upper-level trough approaches from the west, and
move east across northern New England through this evening.
Mid-level flow averaging 40 kts will contribute to sufficient
deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. Substantial cloud
cover is present over northern portions of the risk area, however
pockets of heating in the presence of upper 60s/lower 70s dew points
will contribute to MLCAPE locally 1000-1500 J/kg. Strong/locally
damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat.
...Ohio Valley...
Substantial heating is taking place this morning in advance of the
southeast-moving cold front, and despite poor mid-level lapse rates
the presence of lower-mid 70s surface dew points will contribute to
moderate-strong MLCAPE by early afternoon. Although the region will
generally be south of stronger mid-level flow, numerous storms are
expected to develop, occasionally merging into clusters/short line
segments with a risk for damaging gusts. The Marginal Risk was
adjusted slightly southwest over southeast/east-central IL.
...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle...
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase in association with a
remnant MCV located near the KS/OK border and an outflow
boundary/effective cold front across southeast KS/northwest OK and
west into the TX panhandle. Strong instability will be in place, and
there is some potential for strong/gusty winds with the more intense
storms, however the overall severe risk is expected to remain too
low for introduction of severe probabilities with this outlook, and
heavy rain appears to be the greater threat.
...Great Basin/northern California...
Large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over California
will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage today.
Precipitable water values around 0.75 inches and strong diurnal
heating should yield MLCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg during the
afternoon. A dry sub-cloud layer and steep low-level lapse rates
(approaching 9 C/km) will support a few dry microbursts.
..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/27/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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