Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
43,082
306,288
Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
156,280
1,685,052
Wichita, KS...Rapid City, SD...Enid, OK...Hutchinson, KS...Garden City, KS...
SPC AC 290541
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, a few severe, are expected across portions of
the Great Plains. A few strong storms may also impact portions of
the lower Great Lakes.
...Great Plains...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a disturbance is cresting
the central Rockies ridge over WY. This feature will begin to dig
southeast later today and the trough position should extend along
the WY/SD border, south into northeast CO by late afternoon. While
high-level flow should remain seasonally weak, northwest flow is
expected to strengthen across the High Plains during the evening.
Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will
occur from west TX, north into the western Dakotas. Convective
temperatures should easily be breached by 20-21z and scattered
thunderstorms will initiate beneath the trough from southeast MT
into northwest KS. There is some concern this activity could grow
upscale during the evening as northwest flow increases on the back
side of the digging trough. If so, a southeastward-moving MCS could
propagate toward south-central KS. If sufficient organization
occurs, damaging winds may materialize such that higher severe probs
are warranted. This possible scenario will continue to be monitored.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Southern influence of ON short-wave trough will affect the lower
Great Lakes region during the latter half of the period. 00z NAM
suggests 500mb speed max will dig southeast across lower MI toward
western NY during the late evening. This feature should encourage
scattered convection along a front that will advance south of the
international border around 30/06z. While pre-frontal boundary-layer
heating will be modest across the OH Valley into New England,
forecast 3-6km lapse rates are quite poor (~5 C/km). This should
stunt convective updraft strength despite the influence of the
approaching trough. Even so, strengthening wind profiles suggest at
least some threat for a few damaging wind gusts.
..Darrow/Jirak.. 07/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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