Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
13,846
95,501
Garden City, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
36,089
351,366
Hutchinson, KS...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...
SPC AC 291231
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN KS
VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind and hail will be possible during the late
afternoon and evening across much of western Kansas.
...Central Great Plains...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over eastern WY should slide
southeast into KS tonight. This feature will aid in scattered
afternoon thunderstorms across the central High Plains north into
western SD. A belt of slightly enhanced mid-level northwesterlies
should be coincident with an elevated mixed-layer spreading from
eastern CO into western KS. With the dryline expected to lie along
the border of these states at peak heating, convection in this
region will have the greatest potential to become severe as MLCAPE
approaches 2000 J/kg amid 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. Despite the
degree of shear, unusual V or U-shaped hodographs, given a backing
wind profile from the mid to upper-levels, suggest that convective
mode should evolve into clusters. Guidance also differs greatly with
how convection will evolve to the southeast during the evening. The
06Z NAM appears most aggressive with a distinct severe MCS signal.
With stronger low-level warm advection centered from west TX across
OK, surface cold pool development will likely need to be the primary
mechanism for forward propagation. Nevertheless, the setup appears
to warrant a Slight Risk delineation given the conditional potential
for an organized MCS.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Multiple shortwave impulses are rotating through the broader upper
trough centered on James Bay. The one that will have the greatest
influence on convection in the CONUS this afternoon will be an
impulse over eastern Lake Superior that should reach southeast
Ontario by evening. A west/east-oriented weak surface cold front
will be the primary focus for isolated to perhaps scattered
thunderstorms in the lee of the lower lakes and southeast Lower MI.
Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, robust speed shear will foster
an elongated hodograph. A few cells should acquire mid-level
rotation and yield a risk for marginally severe hail and isolated
damaging winds.
..Grams/Jewell.. 07/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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