Hutchinson, KS...Dodge City, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...
MARGINAL
67,188
1,300,376
Wichita, KS...Enid, OK...Salina, KS...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
30,340
304,830
Hutchinson, KS...Dodge City, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...
5 %
67,378
1,301,231
Wichita, KS...Enid, OK...Salina, KS...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
30,227
304,704
Hutchinson, KS...Dodge City, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...
5 %
67,011
1,297,091
Wichita, KS...Enid, OK...Salina, KS...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...
SPC AC 300043
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with a severe threat will be possible this
evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. Hail and
isolated damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.
...Great Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery and RAP data show west to
west-northwest mid-level flow over the Great Plains with several
small-scale vorticity maxima embedded in the flow. One vorticity max
is moving southeastward across southwest Nebraska. Lift associated
with this feature is likely aiding convective development across the
central Plains at this time. Scattered thunderstorms are most
concentrated ahead of the vort max across southern Nebraska and
northwest Kansas along the northwestern edge of moderate
instability. Surface winds in these areas are mostly backed to the
east with dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This is contributing to
MLCAPE estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In
addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from Goodland shows 0-6 km shear
near 30 kt with some speed shear located in the mid-levels. This
along with steep mid-level lapse rates may be enough for a continued
severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threats. Thunderstorm development may
continue into the mid to late evening as the low-level jet ramps up.
But the severe threat should become marginal due to decreasing
instability.
..Broyles.. 07/30/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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