New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
213,551
57,054,928
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
71,906
26,257,074
New York, NY...Boston, MA...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Newark, NJ...
SPC AC 300551
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible in parts of the southern Plains and from
southern New England to far southeastern New York. Storms with
strong wind gusts will be possible in the Ozarks and from the Blue
Ridge Mountains into the Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
A shortwave trough will move slowly southeastward across the central
Plains today as a cold front advances southward into the southern
Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F across
west Texas and in the lower 70s F across Oklahoma into the Ozarks,
will contribute to a corridor of moderate instability by early
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may initiate along parts of the
front during the afternoon from west Texas eastward into central
Oklahoma where the instability, deep-layer shear of 20 to 30 kt, and
steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for hail and strong wind
gusts. Further to the east across the Ozarks, scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon. A few marginally
severe wind gusts may occur with cells as low-level lapse rates
become steep in the early to mid afternoon.
...Blue Ridge Mountains/Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes
region today as mid-level flow remains westerly across much of the
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place
across the Southeast extending northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. In response, moderate instability is expected
to develop by midday across much of this area. Thunderstorms appear
likely to first develop in the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians late this morning, spreading eastward across the Blue
Ridge during the early to mid afternoon. Thunderstorm development
will also be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England. The instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates
could be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat from the southern
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic. In far southeast New York and
southern New England, deep-layer shear is expected to be stronger
than further to the south. For this reason, thunderstorms that form
along a cold front could have potential for hail and strong wind
gusts.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 07/30/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
| 
)
