Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
51,310
2,176,659
Little Rock, AR...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
23,073
558,332
Wichita Falls, TX...Ardmore, OK...Duncan, OK...Ada, OK...Burkburnett, TX...
5 %
64,514
4,330,272
Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Fort Smith, AR...
SPC AC 310058
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020
Valid 310100Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail
are expected this evening from northwest Texas across parts of
Oklahoma, Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
...Southern Plains/Lower Arkansas Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted upper-level
trough over the central Plains. West-northwest mid-level flow is
located over much of the Red River Valley where scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms are ongoing. According to the RAP, moderate
instability (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) is analyzed from northwest Texas
extending eastward across southern Oklahoma into central Arkansas.
Although WSR-88D VWPs along this corridor show varied deep-layer
shear values, TLX and SRX show the strongest 0-6 km shear values
estimated to be 40 to 45 kt. This combined with the moderate
instability should be sufficient for a severe threat for much of the
remainder of the evening. Hail will be most likely with cells that
are already ongoing from northwest Texas into southern Oklahoma
where lapse rates are steep...see MCD 1359. A wind damage threat
will also exist with the current activity. Model forecasts suggest
the storms will gradually move eastward and develop into the
Arkansas River Valley this evening where a slight risk is
maintained.
...Mid-Atlantic...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough over
southeast Pennsylvania where the RAP has a distinct vorticity max.
A cold front is present in southern Pennsylvania with a pre-frontal
trough located near the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints are in
the 70s F across much of the Mid-Atlantic. A band of strong
thunderstorms are ongoing in Maryland along an axis of instability.
This band of storms will continue to move eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic coast over the hour. An isolated wind damage threat
will likely exist with the stronger cells along the leading of the
line. But the wind damage threat should remain marginal.
..Broyles.. 07/31/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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