SPC AC 311959

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

   Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN LOUISIANA/NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few damaging wind gusts are expected from northern Louisiana to
   northern Mississippi this afternoon. Scattered large hail and severe
   wind gusts will be possible across parts of eastern New Mexico this
   afternoon into early evening.

   ...Discussion...
   Few changes have been made to the ongoing outlook, as ongoing
   forecast reasoning and areas continue to reflect current
   meteorological thinking/expectations.

   The most substantial change has been to expand 5% hail
   probability/MRGL risk across southwestern North Dakota, where storms
   developing near a remnant MCV may produce a few instances of hail. 
   For additional short-term information, please refer to recently
   issued MCD #1367.

   Otherwise, SLGT risk is being maintained for the potential for
   locally damaging winds, associated with a band of storms crossing
   northern Louisiana and approaching west-central Mississippi.  SLGT
   risk is also being continue for severe potential expected to
   increase over the next couple of hours as storms continue to develop
   over the eastern New Mexico vicinity.

   ..Goss.. 07/31/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/

   ...New Mexico to Trans Pecos...
   Northerly flow aloft will strengthen today and, combined with
   low-level southeasterlies, result in a favorably-sheared environment
   for supercells. Steep lapse rates and daytime heating will result in
   moderate MLCAPE, and storms are expected to develop vicinity of the
   Raton Mesa and move south through this evening. Storms will likely
   be outflow dominated and pose a risk for damaging gusts and large
   hail.  

   ...South-central TX to the TN Valley...
   A cluster of thunderstorms over southern AR/northern LA continues to
   weaken this morning, with residual clouds/precipitation lingering
   across this area.  Current expectations are for redevelopment to
   occur along the southern periphery of the cold pool this afternoon,
   and also along a second residual outflow boundary from central
   through northeast MS. Mid-level flow will be somewhat higher in this
   region associated with an MCV over southwest MO, and provide
   sufficient shear for organized storms capable of damaging gusts.
   Clusters of strong/severe storms will be possible farther east along
   the front, aided by differential heating. Shear will be slightly
   lower in this area, however isolated strong wind gusts will remain
   possible.

   Across south central through east TX, thunderstorms should develop
   near the southward-moving cold front within a strongly unstable air
   mass. Despite veered low-level flow ahead of the front, frontal
   convergence should be sufficient for a few clusters of storms
   capable of isolated damaging winds. 

   ...VA/NC...
   A series of weak perturbations embedded within modestly stronger
   mid-level flow will move across the mid-Atlantic this afternoon in
   the vicinity of a stationary front. Substantial cloud cover should
   gradually erode and allow for differential heating of a very moist
   air mass and moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE this afternoon.
   Westerly effective shear averaging 25-30 kts should prove sufficient
   for multicell clusters capable of isolated strong/damaging wind
   gusts this afternoon and evening. 

   ...Northern Great Plains...
   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected along an
   arcing cold front from northwest MN into northern SD and then
   extending west across MT this afternoon.  Although shear is forecast
   to be stronger across MT, instability and frontal convergence will
   be more favorable across eastern ND. Widely scattered storms capable
   of strong/damaging gusts and hail will be possible with more
   pulse-type storms across the MN/ND/SD portion of the risk area,
   while stronger effective shear across MT/northeast WY will result in
   a risk for strong wind gusts and large hail with multicells and
   supercell structures.

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