Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
47,928
984,302
Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Las Vegas, NM...
SPC AC 010037
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
The primary focus for a few few strong/severe thunderstorms this
evening will be across the southern Rockies.
...Southern Rockies...
Early-evening satellite imagery suggests a weak disturbance may be
embedded within northwesterly flow near the CO/NM border. This
feature is digging south-southeast around the front side of dominant
southwestern US ridge. Scattered strong convection has evolved over
the higher terrain ahead of the disturbance, but this activity has
struggled to drift too far east of the mountains. While marginally
severe hail may be noted, the primary risk is for locally severe
winds. 00z sounding from ABQ exhibited very steep lapse rates
through 3km with modest northwesterly flow at mid-high levels. Some
low-end supercell threat does exist within this regime but the
primary storm mode should be multi-cellular.
...Elsewhere...
Decaying MCS is shifting east-southeast across the lower MS Valley.
Gusty winds may accompany the lead broken squall line for the next
few hours, but otherwise this convection should remain mostly
sub-severe.
Weak short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across the southern
Appalachians. Considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of
this feature. While wind fields are seemingly supportive of
organized multi-cell clusters, generally poor lapse rates will lead
to little more than gusty winds along the leading edge of this
convection.
00z sounding from ABR exhibited substantial MLCAPE (1500 J/kg) with
steep lapse rates and modest mid-high level flow. Some organization
is noted with convection that is propagating southeast across
central SD. Gusty winds are the primary threat for the next several
hours with this activity.
..Darrow.. 08/01/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
