Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
52,366
9,198,344
Columbus, OH...Centreville, VA...Dale City, VA...Reston, VA...Burke, VA...
5 %
257,711
32,123,226
Baltimore, MD...El Paso, TX...Washington, DC...Albuquerque, NM...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
37,413
1,252,968
Albuquerque, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...South Valley, NM...Alamogordo, NM...
SPC AC 011630
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible, centered
on portions of the Upper Ohio Valley into northern Virginia from
mid-afternoon through this evening.
...Ohio Valley east to central/northern Virginia...
A surface low was located near the KY/IL border and should lift
northward into western OH tonight. As a broad upper-level trough
amplifies today, an increase in low/mid-level wind fields will
result in shear profiles supportive of multicells and a couple
supercells across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region. An
increase in storm coverage/intensity is expected by early-mid
afternoon across northern KY/southern OH vicinity along a nearly
stationary front, while a second area of severe storms should
develop over eastern WV/northern VA by late afternoon. Damaging
winds will be the primary risk though a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, especially east of the surface low where low-level flow
will be more favorable.
A cluster of storms is also expected over eastern portions of NC/SC,
aided in part by a remnant outflow boundary and strong instability.
Weak wind fields will limit storm organization, but wet downbursts
capable of isolated strong wind gusts will be possible.
...New Mexico/southeast Arizona/far West Texas...
A belt of enhanced mid-level northerlies will lie across the
central/eastern portions of the area between upper-level high
centered over the Lower CO Valley and a trough near the MS Valley.
Buoyancy will be slightly lower compared to yesterday due to a drier
boundary-layer. Nevertheless, weak MLCAPE should contribute to a
couple updrafts with mid-level rotation off the Sangre de Cristo and
Sacramento Mountains with a risk for isolated severe hail.
Otherwise, the steep lapse rate environment will contribute to a
risk for locally severe wind gusts with isolated to scattered storms
that should peak in the late afternoon to early evening.
...East-central FL Coast...
Hurricane Isaias continues moving steadily northwest toward the FL
Atlantic Coast. The more favorable shear profiles supportive of a
risk of tornadoes should remain offshore through 12z Sunday.
..Bunting/Karstens.. 08/01/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
