Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Baltimore, MD...El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
37,270
1,252,399
Albuquerque, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...South Valley, NM...Alamogordo, NM...
SPC AC 012000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible through
this evening, centered on portions of the Upper Ohio Valley into the
northern Virginia and western Maryland vicinity.
...20Z Update...
The only substantial change was to expand the Slight Risk to include
more of western MD into the DC metro area. Latest short-term
guidance suggests that low-level shear should modestly strengthen
later this afternoon into the evening across this region. Any storms
that can remain sustained along/near a northward-moving warm front
may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two. For more information on the near-term severe threat
across the upper OH Valley into the adjacent Appalachians, see
recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409.
..Gleason.. 08/01/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020/
...Ohio Valley east to central/northern Virginia...
A surface low was located near the KY/IL border and should lift
northward into western OH tonight. As a broad upper-level trough
amplifies today, an increase in low/mid-level wind fields will
result in shear profiles supportive of multicells and a couple
supercells across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region. An
increase in storm coverage/intensity is expected by early-mid
afternoon across northern KY/southern OH vicinity along a nearly
stationary front, while a second area of severe storms should
develop over eastern WV/northern VA by late afternoon. Damaging
winds will be the primary risk though a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, especially east of the surface low where low-level flow
will be more favorable.
A cluster of storms is also expected over eastern portions of NC/SC,
aided in part by a remnant outflow boundary and strong instability.
Weak wind fields will limit storm organization, but wet downbursts
capable of isolated strong wind gusts will be possible.
...New Mexico/southeast Arizona/far West Texas...
A belt of enhanced mid-level northerlies will lie across the
central/eastern portions of the area between upper-level high
centered over the Lower CO Valley and a trough near the MS Valley.
Buoyancy will be slightly lower compared to yesterday due to a drier
boundary-layer. Nevertheless, weak MLCAPE should contribute to a
couple updrafts with mid-level rotation off the Sangre de Cristo and
Sacramento Mountains with a risk for isolated severe hail.
Otherwise, the steep lapse rate environment will contribute to a
risk for locally severe wind gusts with isolated to scattered storms
that should peak in the late afternoon to early evening.
...East-central FL Coast...
Hurricane Isaias continues moving steadily northwest toward the FL
Atlantic Coast. The more favorable shear profiles supportive of a
risk of tornadoes should remain offshore through 12z Sunday.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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