Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
60,030
20,129,337
New York, NY...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...Springfield, MA...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
24,865
669,391
Colorado Springs, CO...Pueblo, CO...Cimarron Hills, CO...Fountain, CO...Las Vegas, NM...
5 %
190,314
40,502,592
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Denver, CO...Albuquerque, NM...Aurora, CO...
SPC AC 021247
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CO TO EAST-CENTRAL NM...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and marginally severe hail are
possible across the Northeast through mid-evening. Scattered large
hail and severe wind gusts are possible from south-central Colorado
to east-central New Mexico this afternoon into early evening.
...Northeast...
Two primary areas of severe potential are expected through about
sunset. The first is associated with a pair of ongoing cells in
east-central PA to northwest NJ along a diffuse warm front. As
boundary-layer heating occurs, these cells may intensify as they
track into the Lower Hudson Valley. While hodographs will be
adequate for low-level rotation through midday, low-level
southerlies should largely strengthen during the afternoon. Any
convection that can linger as this process occurs will have greater
potential to produce a tornado and damaging winds given the rather
rich boundary-layer moisture south of the front characterized by
72-75 F surface dew points.
A separate corridor of potential severe convection is anticipated to
evolve near the Saint Lawrence Valley. Here, large-scale ascent will
be comparatively greater in association with a shortwave trough
ejecting from near the Detroit area northeast towards southwest
Quebec. An arc of scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from
southeast Ontario into northern portions of NY/VT this afternoon.
Along the northern periphery of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg, a supercell wind profile should prove favorable for a few
rotating cells. A couple tornadic storms, damaging winds, and
marginally severe hail are all possible.
In between these two regimes, convective coverage may remain rather
isolated. However, the environment will be conditionally favorable
for all hazards during the late afternoon and early evening.
...Southeast WY to NM...
Generally north-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist between a
stout anticyclone over the Lower CO Valley and a broad trough from
the Upper Great Lakes to the northwest Gulf. The best CAPE/shear
space should exist along the Front Range from southeast WY along the
I-25 corridor in CO owing to weak low-level easterlies sustaining a
feed of low to mid 50s surface dew points. Scattered to widespread
convective coverage is consistently progged to be centered farther
south from the Sangre de Cristos in south-central CO through most of
NM. An upgrade to level 2/SLGT risk appears to be warranted where
the greatest overlap of convective coverage with the favorable
CAPE/shear space exists, within a broader region of at least
isolated severe potential.
..Grams/Jewell.. 08/02/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
| 
)
