Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
61,334
20,133,228
New York, NY...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...Springfield, MA...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
36,666
4,320,005
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
5 %
178,513
36,851,978
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Albuquerque, NM...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
SPC AC 021630
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and marginally severe hail are
possible across the Northeast through mid-evening. Scattered large
hail and severe wind gusts are possible from southeast Wyoming to
east-central New Mexico this afternoon into early evening.
...Northeast...
Earlier small cluster of storms over northern NJ, located along a
warm front, has weakened as it moved into southeast NY. Expect some
increase in coverage/intensity in this general area through
afternoon as the storms move in tandem with the warm front. Forecast
soundings and high-resolution guidance depict favorable deep- and
low-level shear profiles and primarily a cellular nature to storms
this afternoon, supporting the potential for supercells exhibiting
low-level rotation and a risk for a few tornadoes. Strong wind gusts
and isolated severe hail will also be possible.
Farther north, large-scale ascent associated with perturbations
ahead of the upper-level trough should support a second location
with a more concentrated severe risk this afternoon/early evening.
MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and favorable supercell wind profiles
will support a risk for all severe hazards.
In between the Slight Risks anticipated storm coverage should be
lower, however a conditional risk for all severe hazards will exist
with any more isolated storms.
...Southeast WY to New Mexico...
Generally north-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist between
a strong anticyclone over the Lower CO Valley and a broad trough
from the Upper Great Lakes to the northwest Gulf. The best
CAPE/shear space should exist along the Front Range from southeast
WY along the I-25 corridor in CO/northeast NM as weak low-level
easterlies sustain a feed of low to mid 50s surface dew points. The
Slight Risk has been expanded north along the Front Range where
latest high-res guidance and forecast soundings suggest scattered
severe storms capable of large hail/damaging gusts. Scattered to
widespread storms with a severe hail/wind risk are also expected to
develop over northeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening.
...Florida...
The current track of Tropical Storm Isaias is such that the risk for
low-level rotation with bands of thunderstorms should remain
offshore through 12z Monday.
..Bunting/Karstens.. 08/02/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
