New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...El Paso, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
8,646
496,983
Massena, NY...Potsdam, NY...Middlebury, VT...
2 %
41,938
32,227,871
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
8,576
499,404
Massena, NY...Potsdam, NY...Middlebury, VT...
5 %
285,095
59,239,079
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...El Paso, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 030100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will linger across upstate New York into
northern Vermont this evening. Otherwise, isolated strong storms
remain possible for the next few hours across portions of the
southern Rockies region and middle Atlantic.
...Northeast...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across
southeast ON/southern QC. Southern influence of this feature appears
to be partly responsible for ongoing convection over upstate NY.
Latest radar data suggests a few supercells persist along a corridor
from Hamilton County NY to southwest of BTV. This activity is
currently spreading across the primary instability axis
characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg with strong shear
supportive of supercells. However, over the next few hours, loss of
daytime heating and downstream air mass not as buoyant, suggests
convection should begin to gradually decrease.
...Southern Rockies...
Scattered convection that developed across much of the southern
Rockies this afternoon has effectively overturned instability across
CO/NM. While gusty winds may continue with the strongest storms for
the next few hours, overall trends suggest the severe threat is
waning.
..Darrow.. 08/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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