Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Fayetteville, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
321,898
60,896,802
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
157,098
5,287,574
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
SPC AC 030515
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes in association with Isaias appear possible across
the eastern Carolinas later tonight. A few strong storms are also
possible across parts of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic and over
the Rockies region.
...Isaias...
Tropical Storm Isaias remains on track to move inland along the
Carolina Coast Monday evening. Low-level shear is forecast to
increase markedly after sunset, east of the land-falling center,
where 850mb flow may be in excess of 70kt. Shear profiles will
become increasingly favorable for supercells, and a few tornadoes,
across coastal Carolina during the latter half of the period.
Reference https://nhc.noaa.gov for more information on Tropical
Storm Isaias
Farther inland, modest southwesterly flow will persist across the
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic in advance of primary trough
located over the MS Valley. While deep-layer flow will be supportive
of organized updrafts, poor lapse rates should limit updraft
strength. Even so, an isolated damaging wind gust can not be ruled
out with diurnally driven convection.
...Rockies...
Strong short-wave trough will eject inland across the northern
Rockies into western MT during the afternoon hours. This feature
will flatten the western US ridge such that scattered convection is
expected to develop along/ahead of a frontal zone as it progresses
into central MT. Models suggest strong boundary-layer heating will
allow surface temperatures to warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s over
southern MT and this should be more than adequate for breaching
convective temperatures by 22z. As a result, high-based
thunderstorms should develop within a favorable large-scale pattern
for sustained updrafts capable of producing isolated damaging wind
gusts/hail. Modest north-northwesterly flow from eastern WY into
eastern NM will also allow diurnally driven convection some
opportunity to briefly organize with some threat for gusty
winds/marginally severe hail.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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