Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
150,166
5,173,599
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
SPC AC 040059
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes remain possible tonight across parts of the Mid
Atlantic and Carolina Coasts in association Hurricane Isaias.
Isolated severe storms will also continue this evening across parts
of the High Plains.
...Eastern Carolinas into eastern Virginia...
Hurricane Isaias continues moving northward just off the coast of
South Carolina. The storm is expected to move inland just after
midnight over far southeast North Carolina, southwest of Wilmington,
and then continue north-northeastward to southwestern Virginia by
the end of the period (please refer to the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center for more information on Isaias).
At this time, several rotating storms are evident within spiral
banding extending from the Gulf Stream east-northeastward into
southeastern North Carolina, and adjacent portions of northeastern
South Carolina. Modest CAPE is indicated within the northeast
quadrant of the storm, evidenced by sporadic lightning -- both
offshore and inland. This, combined with very strong low-level flow
veering with height from easterly/east-northeasterly at the surface,
to southeasterly at 1 km and above, will continue to provide
favorable shear for updraft rotation, and attendant risk for a few
tornadoes. The risk area will gradually spread northward, in tandem
with the movement of Isaias, expanding as far north as the
Chesapeake Bay region by the end of the period.
...High Plains from Montana to New Mexico...
Isolated thunderstorms -- a few strong to locally severe -- are
ongoing at this time across the High Plains, from north central
Montana south to northeastern New Mexico. The storms are occurring
within an axis of 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, with
updraft intensity aided by the presence of 30 to 40 kt northwesterly
mid-level flow curving anticyclonically across the region, around
the periphery of a ridge centered over the Southwest.
Though the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling will result in a
gradual reduction in CAPE, a few vigorous storms may persist well
into the evening across this area. Gusty/damaging winds will be the
primary risk, before storms weaken to sub-severe levels areawide.
..Goss.. 08/04/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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