Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
89,096
655,629
Amarillo, TX...Garden City, KS...North Platte, NE...Liberal, KS...Dumas, TX...
5 %
237,987
6,296,356
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Amarillo, TX...Lakewood, CO...Pueblo, CO...
SPC AC 050103
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two will remain possible with Tropical Storm
Isaias across northern New England this evening, as the system moves
slowly northward into Canada. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms
across western portions parts of the Great Plains will be
accompanied by risk for hail and wind through this evening and
possibly into the overnight hours.
...Western portions of the Plains...
Several loose clusters of storms are ongoing across the Plains this
evening, where isolated risk for severe weather continues. One
cluster, now spreading into northwestern North Dakota, may pose
continued/isolated risk for hail and locally gusty/winds over the
next few hours. Another band of storms -- from central South Dakota
to the Nebraska Panhandle -- will also remain capable of producing
hail and locally strong wind gusts this evening.
However, risk for more widespread, upscale-growing convection
appears most likely across the central High Plains region and
spreading south-southeastward with time this evening, as a southerly
low-level jet develops over western portions of the Plains. With a
north-south band of 1500 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE over this
area, and 30 to 40 kt west-northwesterlies at mid-cloud level
(around 400 mb), isolated organized/severe storms will continue
within the broader area of convection. With time, one or more
quasi-linear bands of storms may advance across western Kansas, and
into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region, accompanied by local risk
for damaging winds into the overnight hours.
...Northern New England...
Tropical Storm Isaias -- currently centered over the central Vermont
vicinity, will continue moving steadily north-northeastward toward
the St. Lawrence Valley. Convective bands associated with Isaias
are no longer producing inland lightning, but an occasional, weakly
rotating updraft will remain possible this evening -- Mainly across
northern New Hampshire and Maine. As banding shifts northward in
conjunction with Isaias' advance, threat will end from south to
north -- and eventually shift northward into Canada overnight.
..Goss.. 08/05/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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