Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Lakewood, CO...Sioux Falls, SD...Thornton, CO...
SPC AC 051245
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
The most likely area for scattered severe hail and wind will be
across the central High Plains between 2 to 10 PM MDT.
...Central High Plains...
Even in the wake of extensive convective overturning yesterday, a
broad plume of low to mid 50s surface dew points persists across the
region. In conjunction with robust diabatic heating, scattered
thunderstorms should develop in the early to mid-afternoon across
the Front Range of CO into southeast WY. Moderate speed shear from
the mid to upper levels amid continued west-northwest flow will
support initial supercell development with a primary risk of large
hail up to 2-2.5 inches along the I-25 corridor. Convection will
likely congeal into eastward-moving clusters with a risk for severe
wind gusts across northeast CO into southwest NE and far northwest
KS. This activity will likely decay an hour or two after sunset as
MLCIN nocturnally increases.
...Eastern SD to northeast NE...
A compact shortwave impulse over eastern ND will slide southeast
into IA by evening. Instability will be lacking immediately ahead of
the impulse across parts MN/IA owing to a cool boundary layer.
Stronger diabatic heating will occur farther west in SD/NE. Isolated
late afternoon thunderstorms may develop along the periphery of weak
instability in eastern SD and track south near the MLCAPE gradient
into northeast NE. Within a corridor of 40-kt 500-mb
northwesterlies, a supercell or two may briefly form with a risk for
severe hail and locally strong gusts into early evening.
...East TX to western LA...
Outflow associated with a cluster of early morning convection across
OK may spread southeast from the Lower Red into the Sabine Valley
through this afternoon. As this outflow impinges on rich
boundary-layer moisture characterized by 70-74 F surface dew points
over southeast TX, loosely organized clusters may develop towards
the coast amid modest mid-level northwesterlies. Damaging winds
appear to be the primary threat, with isolated coverage being most
probable at this juncture.
...Southeast...
While an ongoing convective cluster over eastern SC into southeast
NC will slow destabilization along that portion of the coastal
plain, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected farther west
and north across the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. With modest
15-25 kt mid-level southwesterlies, multicell clusters will pose a
risk for wet microbursts and resultant tree damage.
..Grams/Jewell.. 08/05/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
| 
)
