Aug 6, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 6 00:41:09 UTC 2020 (20200806 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200806 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200806 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 27,427 115,280 Lamar, CO...
MARGINAL 74,525 1,208,413 Sioux Falls, SD...Pueblo, CO...Sioux City, IA...North Platte, NE...Brookings, SD...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200806 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200806 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 27,400 121,190 Lamar, CO...
5 % 74,449 1,190,400 Sioux Falls, SD...Pueblo, CO...Sioux City, IA...North Platte, NE...Brookings, SD...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200806 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 24,360 103,693 Lamar, CO...
5 % 54,668 463,001 Pueblo, CO...Fountain, CO...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Trinidad, CO...
   SPC AC 060041

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020

   Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms will linger this evening across the
   central High Plains.

   ...Central High Plains...

   Early-evening water vapor imagery depicts a mid-level vort along the
   UT/CO border near 4BL. This feature will soon turn east and approach
   the High Plains toward sunrise. Latest guidance suggests some mass
   response ahead of this feature with a weak LLJ expected to develop
   along the KS/CO border late this evening. Isolated strong/severe
   storms have developed well ahead of this vort but organization has
   been lacking and there is currently no indication that this activity
   will grow upscale appreciably. Even so, gusty winds/hail may
   continue to be noted with this convection has it spreads toward
   northwest KS.

   Farther east into southeast SD/northeast NE, towering cumulus has
   been slow to develop into thunderstorms. However, over the last hour
   or so, more sustained updrafts have begun to produce a few showers.
   Will maintain low severe probs but overall risk appears somewhat
   marginal.

   ..Darrow.. 08/06/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z