Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
89,288
626,709
Billings, MT...Rapid City, SD...Gillette, WY...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
SPC AC 070056
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms will persist this evening
across the Great Plains. A few strong storms will also linger across
parts of North Carolina into southern Maryland. Gusty winds are the
main threat.
...Great Plains...
Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern WA/OR this
evening. This feature will flatten the northern Rockies ridge as it
progresses across western MT by sunrise. Well ahead of the short
wave, isolated strong/severe storms have developed along the lee
trough from southeast MT - eastern WY - eastern CO. This activity
should gradually shift east this evening as nocturnal LLJ begins to
increase across the High Plains. 00z sounding from RAP was quite
unstable with modest deep-layer flow. While storm motions should
remain somewhat slow, adequate shear exists for at least organized
multi-cell clusters.
...Southeast/Middle Atlantic...
Considerable amount of diurnal convection has been observed over the
Southeast into the Delmarva region. 00z soundings across this region
exhibit poor lapse rates, high PW, and only modest shear. A few
strong storms will linger across this region for the next hour or
two, but for the most part, convective overturning has resulted in
limited buoyancy, and this should result in weakening updrafts.
..Darrow.. 08/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
