Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
177,665
7,797,691
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Fargo, ND...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
87,235
2,062,776
Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...
5 %
115,358
5,767,776
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...Sioux City, IA...
SPC AC 091158
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind
damage will be the primary threats.
...MN/IA/WI/Upper MI This Morning...
A large area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is affecting
much of central/southern MN and vicinity this morning. An expansive
area of cloud cover extends eastward from the storms, likely
limiting daytime heating ahead of convection over northern WI,
eastern MN, and western Upper MI. While there is some potential for
local intensification of storms in this cluster, the overall
environment appears unfavorable for organized severe storms this
morning through early afternoon.
...ND/SD/MN This Afternoon...
Water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough over MT moving eastward
into the Plains. A cold front is also moving across ND, and will be
the focus for afternoon intense thunderstorm development. Activity
through mid afternoon will primarily pose a risk of hail. However,
it appears storms will develop southward along the front into parts
of SD during the late afternoon and evening, spreading southeastward
across central/southern MN and eventually into northern IA
overnight. Forecast soundings show ample CAPE and 40+ knots of
westerly midlevel winds. This will promote bowing segments capable
of damaging winds.
..Hart/Mosier.. 08/09/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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