Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
97,289
8,644,582
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
172,954
10,392,131
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Amarillo, TX...Overland Park, KS...
SPC AC 100529
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS TO
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible later
today from Kansas to Illinois. Severe gusts will be the primary
hazard.
...Kansas to Illinois...
Weak upper ridge remains elongated east-west about 32N across the
southern US. Latest model guidance continues to suggest several weak
disturbances will rotate around this ridge, just south of stronger
westerlies that should sag across the northern third of the country.
While the stronger westerly flow, and associated mid-level height
falls, will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development
along/ahead of a surface front across the Great Lakes/Midwest, a few
notable disturbances should migrate across the Four Corners, through
CO into KS by late afternoon.
Latest model guidance suggests scattered convection will be ongoing
from portions of the mid MO Valley, northeast into the upper Great
Lakes in response to height falls ahead of the northern stream
short-wave trough. This activity will likely not dissipate before
boundary-layer warming contributes to destabilization such that
renewed robust updrafts take advantage of diurnally-enhanced
buoyancy. Forecast wind profiles suggest much of this activity
should be multi-cellular in nature, possibly maturing into several
clusters, or an MCS as convection spreads/develops southeast toward
central IL. Severe wind gusts are the main threat with this
activity.
Farther west along the frontal zone across the central Plains,
strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across the high Plains
from west TX into central KS. This strong heating should result in
surface parcels reaching their convective temperatures by 22z. Aided
by frontal convergence, and approaching weak disturbances from CO,
it appears an elongated corridor of scattered convection should
develop along the wind shift. Weak vertical shear favors multi-cell
updrafts and severe wind gusts will be the main concern.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/10/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
| 
)
