Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
262,787
20,945,073
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...
SPC AC 101216
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are forecast to move
across parts of Iowa, Illinois, and southern Wisconsin through this
afternoon. Other scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible later today over portions of Kansas and Missouri.
...IA/IL...
Morning water vapor loop shows a progressive shortwave trough
digging southeastward across parts of ND/SD. A cluster of
thunderstorms formed overnight ahead of this system along the NE/SD
border. Recent trends in this activity suggest a developing bow
echo, with an increasing risk of damaging winds. Recent CAM
solutions suggest this MCS will persist through the day and track
eastward across much of IA and into IL. The storms are currently
behind a surface cold front, which may temper the downdraft
potential through mid-morning. However, it is likely that the
storms will catch up to the front by early afternoon over
central/eastern IA, when a more widespread damaging wind threat may
ensue. Very large CAPE values and sufficient deep-layer shear will
help maintain the storms across IL and perhaps into IN before
weakening this evening.
...Southern WI this morning...
A small cluster of intense storms is currently near LaCrosse WI.
These storms may persist and track across southern WI this morning,
posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Please refer
to MCD #1446 for further details.
...KS/MO...
Strong heating will result in a corridor of very unstable air across
parts of KS/MO this afternoon, with SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg around
max heating. Scattered afternoon and evening multicell
thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the strongest cells
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail.
..Hart/Mosier.. 08/10/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
| 
)
