Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
208,737
27,810,245
Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
132,057
6,578,072
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Amarillo, TX...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...
SPC AC 110042
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds will continue ahead of a long-lived Derecho that is
progressing across the Ohio Valley. Isolated severe gusts are also
possible extending west into portions of Kansas/northern Oklahoma.
...Ohio Valley...
Early-day MCS that formed over southeast SD/northeast NE quickly
grew upscale into a damaging Derecho then progressed across
IA/northern IL into the northern OH Valley. Leading squall line has
surged across southwest lower MI, arcing along the IN/OH border into
southern IN. Air mass downstream across eastern OH/western PA is
notably drier and more stable than regions farther west across the
lower OH Valley. This elongated MCS should gradually slow its
forward propagation and eventually lessen in intensity. Have
extended severe probabilities downstream to account for some
uncertainty regarding the eastern edge of this severe threat. Until
this squall line weakens damaging wind threat will continue.
Farther southwest across southern IN/southern IL/southern MO, what
appears to be the weak remnants of an old MCV has progressed into
east-central MO, northwest of St. Louis. Convection has gradually
expanded in areal coverage/intensity ahead of this feature and a
more expansive precip shield/cold pool is forming. This evolution
will likely contribute to a more southeastward-moving squall line
that could surge across western KY toward parts of western/middle TN
later this evening. These trends warrant extending higher severe
probabilities into portions of TN.
...KS/OK...
Surface front currently trails west across KS along the I-70
corridor. Northwesterly flow is forecast to deepen across the
central Plains in the wake of a short-wave trough as it translates
through the mid-MS Valley. Over the last few hours, convection has
gradually expanded along a corridor from the northern TX Panhandle
into west-central KS. There is some indication this activity may
continue to expand in areal coverage and subsequent movement could
result in strong/severe convective threat spreading southeast across
southern KS and northern OK. Damaging winds are the primary threat.
..Darrow.. 08/11/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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