Aberdeen, SD...Pierre, SD...Huron, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...
MARGINAL
203,220
5,726,437
Lubbock, TX...Shreveport, LA...Amarillo, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Albany, NY...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
37,498
96,105
Pierre, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
55,587
188,197
Aberdeen, SD...Pierre, SD...Huron, SD...
5 %
202,996
5,703,365
Lubbock, TX...Shreveport, LA...Amarillo, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Albany, NY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
47,029
133,239
Pierre, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...
5 %
144,566
2,448,630
Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...
SPC AC 120101
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will remain possible this evening
and overnight, mainly across parts of the northern Plains.
...Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered convection has developed this evening
along the length of a lee trough extending southward from a surface
low over northeastern WY and across much of the High Plains. Most of
this activity from NE to TX should continue to pose an isolated
large hail and severe wind threat for another couple of hours this
evening, before eventually weakening as convective inhibition
increases. For more information on the near-term severe threat
across parts of the central/southern High Plains, see Mesoscale
Discussion 1468.
Additional storms have formed across far eastern MT and western ND
on the northwestern fringe of an instability axis. There remains
some potential for this convection grow upscale into a small MCS and
spread east-southeastward mainly across SD this evening and
overnight along/south of a weak warm front. At least moderate
instability will remain across this area owing to steep mid-level
lapse rates (see 00Z UNR sounding) overlying rich low-level
moisture. A southerly low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen
tonight across the northern/central Plains, which may also help
maintain storm intensity/longevity with eastward extent across SD
through much of the period. Large hail will remain a possibility
with ongoing storms, and severe/damaging winds may become the
primary threat if storms grow upscale.
...Elsewhere...
Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this
evening and overnight across parts of southeastern OK into the
ArkLaTex region as modestly enhanced shear associated with a
mid-level vorticity maximum remains over these areas. Occasional
strong to locally damaging winds may also occur for another hour or
two across parts of the Northeast with ongoing convection before it
weakens later this evening.
..Gleason.. 08/12/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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