SPC AC 121248

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0748 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

   Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with both large hail and
   strong/damaging winds will be possible today and tonight across
   parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest.

   ...MT/ND...
   Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over parts of WA/ID.  This
   feature will move eastward into MT today, while a surface cold front
   approaches eastern MT.  A moist and very unstable environment is
   forecast to develop from far eastern MT into much of the Dakotas,
   with steep low/mid level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s. 
   Thunderstorms will form along the cold front by mid/late afternoon
   and track into western/northern ND through the evening.  The
   strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds and hail.

   ...NE/KS...
   Will maintain the ongoing SLGT risk for this area, although
   considerable differences exist among various CAMs.  Sufficient
   deep-layer shear and strong CAPE will pose a conditional risk of
   damaging wind gusts in any storms that can become sustained. 
   However, confidence is not particularly high on the details of the
   convective evolution of this region.

   ...Mid Atlantic Region into Southeast States...
   A relatively stagnant upper pattern is present today over the
   southeastern quarter of the nation, with weak winds throughout the
   troposphere.  Nevertheless, ample low level moisture will result in
   substantial CAPE values this afternoon from the Delmarva region into
   the Carolinas and Gulf Coast states.  It is likely that a few of
   these storms may produce gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. 
   However, it appears unlikely that 50 knot wind gusts will be
   realized, so will maintain less-than-5% severe wind probabilities at
   this time.

   ..Hart/Mosier.. 08/12/2020

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