Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 130056
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ND...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
INTO NORTHEAST OK...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the
northern and central High Plains this evening into the overnight,
and from Kansas into northeast Oklahoma late tonight. Locally severe
hail and wind gusts are the primary threats.
...Northern Great Plains...
Scattered strong thunderstorms ongoing at 01Z near the MT/ND border
will spread eastward into a larger portion of western ND this
evening, posing a threat of isolated severe hail and wind.
Downstream capping results in some uncertainty regarding how far
eastward the ongoing convection can spread, and while some increase
in low/midlevel flow is expected this evening, any substantial
upscale growth appears as if it will be confined to areas near and
north of the international border. Thus, only a Marginal Risk has
been maintained across this region, though a conditional severe
threat remains overnight across northern ND should any MCS propagate
further south than expected. See MCD 1473 for further discussion of
this area.
...Western NE and adjacent portions of southwest SD/northeast CO...
Ongoing strong thunderstorms will continue to a pose a threat of
isolated severe hail/wind through mid evening, before storms
dissipate later tonight as they encounter an environment of
increasing MLCINH.
...KS/OK...
Elevated convection is expected to develop late tonight from
central/eastern KS into northeast OK, within a warm-advection
regime. Moderate MUCAPE and modestly enhanced effective shear within
the northwesterly-flow regime will support some organization with
the strongest convection. Isolated hail should be the primary
initial threat, though any upscale-growing clusters could pose a
threat of locally damaging wind gusts as well.
..Dean.. 08/13/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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