Des Moines, IA...Mobile, AL...Amarillo, TX...Jackson, MS...Sioux Falls, SD...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
14,064
696,848
St. Cloud, MN...Willmar, MN...Fergus Falls, MN...Buffalo, MN...Hutchinson, MN...
2 %
64,549
4,526,814
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
16,933
1,370,322
Plymouth, MN...Eden Prairie, MN...Maple Grove, MN...St. Cloud, MN...Minnetonka, MN...
Des Moines, IA...Mobile, AL...Amarillo, TX...Jackson, MS...Sioux Falls, SD...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
79,664
5,722,026
Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...
5 %
122,438
3,148,991
Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Fargo, ND...Duluth, MN...Eau Claire, WI...
SPC AC 141615
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail are
expected from Minnesota to Kansas through this evening. The most
likely corridor for severe storms, including a few tornadoes, is
across parts of western and central Minnesota.
...MN to KS...
A shortwave trough over central ND will amplify as it moves into
northwest Ontario through tonight. A surface cyclone in northeast SD
is expected to develop across the Lake of the Woods region into
northwest ON. An attendant cold front will sweep east across MN,
with trailing portion pushing southeast across the central Great
Plains.
A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is ongoing across parts
of northwest MN. The southern extent of a leading area of recently
decayed convection across east-central MN has been poorly simulated
by 12Z HREF members. Outflow from this convection has reached the
Twin Cities metro area and arcs west into west-central MN. Remnant
stratiform and plentiful cloud coverage in its wake will slow
destabilization ahead of the cluster near the surface cyclone. Lower
than average confidence exists in convective evolution across
northern MN as strong forcing for ascent may remain well to the cool
side of the outflow boundary.
By 20-21Z, MLCIN should weaken in a narrow zone along the cold
front, south of the leading outflow, from southwest MN across
eastern NE into western KS. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 3000-4000
J/kg along with 25-35 kt effective bulk shear will favor a
predominant mode of clusters/line segments with a few embedded
supercells. Primary hazards should be damaging winds along with
large hail. The tornado threat will likely be maximized near the
front/outflow intersection across west-central to central MN.
...Central Gulf Coast States...
An ongoing cluster in the Lower MS Valley should continue to spread
southeast on convective outflow towards the central Gulf Coast.
Moderate buoyancy/little convective inhibition with weak vertical
shear may yield loosely organized multicells and an attendant threat
for isolated wind damage through this afternoon.
..Grams/Kerr.. 08/14/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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