SPC AC 141959

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail are
   expected from Minnesota to Kansas through this evening. The most
   likely corridor for severe storms, including a few tornadoes, is
   across parts of western and central Minnesota. Hail and damaging
   gusts are also possible from parts of Kansas into the Oklahoma and
   Texas Panhandles.

   ...Minnesota and vicinity...
   Minor lowering of probabilities was done over parts of northern MN
   where the air is cooler due to outflow. The primary concern will be
   with storms forming along the cold front, now extending from far
   eastern SD into eastern NE. Much of central MN is recovering with
   good southerly flow, and the existing outflow air is resulting in
   bolstered SRH with 0-1 values up to 300 m2/s2 just south of the
   ongoing storms. This should result in a few supercells along the
   front, with large hail and a few tornadoes possible. For more
   information see mesoscale discussion 1487.

   ...Western Kansas into the Texas Panhandle...
   A large area of strong instability has develop over much of the
   region, beneath modest northwest flow aloft. An isolated severe cell
   has already developed south of Amarillo in the hot air, with
   indications of hail. Other cells will develop from western KS into
   the northwest Panhandles near a stalling front later this afternoon,
   and will spread southeast with sporadic large hail or damaging
   gusts. Capping will limit the eastward extent of the severe threat,
   limited to the steep lapse rate corridor from western KS into the TX
   Panhandle. A storm or two may persist into northwest Oklahoma this
   evening.

   ..Jewell.. 08/14/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/

   ...MN to KS...
   A shortwave trough over central ND will amplify as it moves into
   northwest Ontario through tonight. A surface cyclone in northeast SD
   is expected to develop across the Lake of the Woods region into
   northwest ON. An attendant cold front will sweep east across MN,
   with trailing portion pushing southeast across the central Great
   Plains. 

   A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is ongoing across parts
   of northwest MN. The southern extent of a leading area of recently
   decayed convection across east-central MN has been poorly simulated
   by 12Z HREF members. Outflow from this convection has reached the
   Twin Cities metro area and arcs west into west-central MN. Remnant
   stratiform and plentiful cloud coverage in its wake will slow
   destabilization ahead of the cluster near the surface cyclone. Lower
   than average confidence exists in convective evolution across
   northern MN as strong forcing for ascent may remain well to the cool
   side of the outflow boundary. 

   By 20-21Z, MLCIN should weaken in a narrow zone along the cold
   front, south of the leading outflow, from southwest MN across
   eastern NE into western KS. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 3000-4000
   J/kg along with 25-35 kt effective bulk shear will favor a
   predominant mode of clusters/line segments with a few embedded
   supercells. Primary hazards should be damaging winds along with
   large hail. The tornado threat will likely be maximized near the
   front/outflow intersection across west-central to central MN.

   ...Central Gulf Coast States...
   An ongoing cluster in the Lower MS Valley should continue to spread
   southeast on convective outflow towards the central Gulf Coast.
   Moderate buoyancy/little convective inhibition with weak vertical
   shear may yield loosely organized multicells and an attendant threat
   for isolated wind damage through this afternoon.

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