SPC AC 150057

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered storms will continue from the upper Mississippi Valley
   into the Upper Great Lakes through mid evening with a threat for
   mainly isolated large hail, damaging wind and perhaps a brief
   tornado. Elsewhere isolated severe storms with a threat for large
   hail and damaging wind will persist through mid evening from central
   Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

   ...Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region...

   Thunderstorms will continue developing along an eastward-advancing
   cold front from extreme eastern MN into northwest WI next few hours.
   Some southward development into northern IA is also possible.
   Primary severe threat will be through about 02Z or 03Z followed by a
   decrease in intensity as storms begin to shift east of the
   instability corridor. Large hail and damaging wind are the main
   threats. 

   ...Kansas through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...

   Isolated storms capable of large hail to very large hail will 
   persist through mid evening from KS into the TX and OK Panhandles.
   Activity is developing along a southward-advancing cold front and
   within an environment of strong instability (2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE).
   The 00Z RAOB from DDC shows fairly strong convective inhibition at
   the base of the EML, and inhibition will increase further as the
   surface layer stabilizes. This should result in a diminishing trend
   after 03Z.

   ..Dial.. 08/15/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z