Garden City, KS...Hibbing, MN...Bemidji, MN...Guymon, OK...Lamar, CO...
MARGINAL
234,267
11,308,258
Colorado Springs, CO...St. Louis, MO...Amarillo, TX...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
25,803
345,487
Hibbing, MN...Brainerd, MN...Bemidji, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
31,334
147,559
Garden City, KS...Guymon, OK...Lamar, CO...
5 %
243,051
10,611,276
St. Louis, MO...Amarillo, TX...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
50,957
343,991
Hibbing, MN...Bemidji, MN...Lamar, CO...
5 %
157,985
4,517,694
Colorado Springs, CO...Pueblo, CO...Duluth, MN...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...
SPC AC 151629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN MN AND
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across northern Minnesota
and a portion of the south-central High Plains during the late
afternoon and early evening.
...Northern MN...
The left-exit region of an embedded mid-upper speed max over
the Prairie Provinces will translate southeast across the Red River
Valley by early evening. While boundary-layer dew points should
largely hover around the mid 50s in the wake of convection and a
cold frontal passage yesterday, cooling mid-level temperatures and
robust surface heating should support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.
Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a few supercells
and multicell clusters during the late afternoon to mid evening,
with a primary risk of severe hail.
...South-central High Plains...
Weak low-level easterlies have yielded upper 50s to mid 60s surface
dew points across the region. Surface heating beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates will result in a plume of moderate-strong
buoyancy at peak heating (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), within a modest
northwest flow regime aloft characterized by effective bulk shear
increasing to near 30 kts. This will conditionally support a few
transient supercells and multicell clusters.
Storm initiation north of the Palmer Divide is highly questionable
given upstream mid-level drying overspreading the region per water
vapor imagery and minimal simulated convection in morning guidance.
Greater confidence in convective development is off the Sangre de
Cristos and Raton Mesa region. This activity should develop along
the periphery of the buoyancy plume and its uncertain whether it can
spread northeast towards the richer low-level moisture centered on
southwest KS prior to nocturnal MLCIN increase. Convection may tend
to spread southeast in the weaker shear regime of eastern NM and the
western TX Panhandle. Otherwise, low-level warm advection may yield
a cluster of overnight/early morning convection across
southwest/south-central KS and northwest OK with perhaps a marginal
severe risk.
...IL to the Ozarks...
A weakly convergent cold front slowly settling southeastward should
be the focus for isolated late afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms. A confluent belt of modest 20-25 kt mid-level
northwesterlies should overlie this portion of the front, with the
greatest buoyancy expected from MO southwestward. Setup should
support isolated damaging winds region wide, with some hail also
possible over the Ozarks.
..Grams/Wendt.. 08/15/2020
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