Tulsa, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Muskogee, OK...Bartlesville, OK...Garden City, KS...
MARGINAL
219,012
7,427,782
Colorado Springs, CO...St. Louis, MO...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Duluth, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
14,399
154,969
Hibbing, MN...Bemidji, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
39,097
1,372,514
Tulsa, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Muskogee, OK...Bartlesville, OK...Garden City, KS...
5 %
233,687
7,502,387
Colorado Springs, CO...St. Louis, MO...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Duluth, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
52,475
1,511,608
Tulsa, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Muskogee, OK...Bartlesville, OK...Garden City, KS...
5 %
193,560
4,239,763
Colorado Springs, CO...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Duluth, MN...Fort Smith, AR...
SPC AC 160102
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will
persist into mid evening over northeast Oklahoma as well as eastern
Colorado and possibly later tonight into southwest Kansas. Isolated
severe storms remain possible over northern Minnesota this evening.
...Northeast Oklahoma...
A small cluster of storms that developed over southwest MO along a
cold front should continue to propagate southwest through northeast
OK next 2-3 hours. Primary forcing is strong convergence along the
convective outflow boundary within a strongly unstable environment.
The thermodynamics with steep lapse rates and 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE will
support a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Eventually,
a stabilizing boundary layer and increasing convective inhibition
will contribute to the demise of the storms later this evening.
...Eastern Colorado through southwest Kansas...
Isolated severe storms continue developing over eastern CO within an
environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and
25-35 kt 0-6 km shear. This environment is weakly forced, and it
remains possible that storms might congeal into a small cluster and
develop southeast this evening, but confidence is relatively low.
..Dial.. 08/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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