Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tucson, AZ...Omaha, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
356,843
17,927,186
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tucson, AZ...Omaha, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
342,251
16,758,414
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...
SPC AC 160559
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the
central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening with large
hail and downburst winds the main threat. Other strong storms with
downburst winds are possible across southern Arizona this afternoon.
...Central Plains region...
A corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the low to mid
60s F will advect northward through the central Plains in advance of
a weak cold front that will advance southeast through NE during the
day. Atmosphere should become moderately to strongly unstable as the
boundary layer warms with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the
central Plains and around 1500 J/kg farther northeast into the upper
MS Valley. A very weak shortwave trough embedded within a
northwesterly flow regime will accompany the cold front through NE
during the afternoon, and at least isolated storms will be possible
along the cold front. Other storms may develop farther west over the
higher terrain of CO and spread southeast. Effective bulk shear from
30-35 kt will be supportive of mid-level updraft rotation with any
storms that develop from NE into IA which, along with the
thermodynamic environment would augment the threat for large hail.
Otherwise a few multicell clusters will be the dominant storm mode
with activity spreading southeast from CO. Given the ongoing
uncertainty regarding convective evolution/coverage will maintain
MRGL for now, but an upgrade to SLGT risk may be needed for portions
of this region in later updates.
...Southern Plains...
The atmosphere in vicinity of a stalled boundary near the TX/OK
border will become moderately to strongly unstable as the surface
layer warms with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Scattered storms
are expected to develop in this weak shear environment. Multicells
capable of downburst winds and hail will be the main threat during
the afternoon and early evening.
...Southern Arizona...
Northeast winds aloft will once again support storms moving off the
higher terrain into the desert valleys where inverted-V profiles
will support a few downbursts winds during the late afternoon and
early evening.
..Dial/Bentley.. 08/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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