SPC AC 170055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

   Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms with damaging wind and hail will continue until
   mid evening from southern Nebraska into northern Kansas as well as
   northern Texas.

   ...Southern Nebraska into northern Kansas and eastern Colorado...

   Storms that developed earlier along a cold front continue across
   southern NE into northern KS. Overall storms have become less
   organized with a tendency to evolve into clusters. Nevertheless,
   given 30-40 kt effective shear and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE storms will
   remain capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind through
   about 03Z. However, a gradual weakening trend is expected as the
   surface layer stabilizes and convective inhibition undergoes a
   substantial increase. 

   ...Northern Texas...

   Scattered multicell storms that developed along a stalled front
   continue across northern TX. Despite a weak shear environment,
   strong instability with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE is and deep well mixed
   boundary layers have supported isolated damaging downburst winds.
   Storms have evolved into several clusters, and the severe threat
   will persist into mid evening as storms continue southward toward
   central TX. However, a gradual weakening trend is expected by 03Z as
   the boundary layer begins to stabilize.

   ..Dial.. 08/17/2020

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