Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 190047
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POCKETS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...
...SUMMARY...
The most concentrated strong/severe convection is expected to focus
across the lower Colorado River Valley, and from southeast Oregon
into central Idaho. Gusty winds are the primary threat.
...01z Update...
Convection once again developed over the Mogollon Rim in AZ, but a
bit more expansive and farther west than Monday evening. Strongest
and more organized thunderstorm activity is propagating off the
higher terrain toward the lower CO River Valley where surface
temperatures remain above 115F. 00z soundings from this region
suggest the LFC with this activity is just below 500mb, and a
substantial amount of sub-cloud dry air will remain conducive for
gusty downdrafts. Reference MCD #1526 for more information.
Farther northwest across the Intermountain region, scattered
thunderstorms have been slow to organize in the lee of the Sierra
Nevada. However, expanding cloud tops over western NV and some
increase in lightning suggest this activity is slowly maturing. With
time, strong storms should begin to spread northeast with an
attendant threat for isolated severe winds. Reference MCD # 1527 for
more information.
It's not clear how organized convection will become across eastern
OR into central NV. Robust updrafts, with appreciable lightning, are
quite sparse and there is extensive cloud cover over much of the
eastern two-thirds of the state. Even so, wind fields support
longer-lived updrafts with some organization. Earlier CAMs suggest
this will eventually occur, so will maintain low severe wind
probabilities across this region.
..Darrow.. 08/19/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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