Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Mesa, AZ...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
283,642
11,616,224
Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Mesa, AZ...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
16,024
132,248
Hibbing, MN...
SPC AC 200046
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN US...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible across
northeast Minnesota early this evening. Isolated strong to locally
severe wind gusts will be possible within an arc from the southern
Montana to eastern New Mexico, and from central Arizona into
southern California.
...Minnesota Arrowhead...
Short-wave trough, embedded within northwesterly flow, is digging
southeast across western ON/Arrowhead of MN. Isolated strong
thunderstorms have evolved within, and just behind the trough axis
along the eastern plume of much stronger instability field over
northwest/north-central MN. Southwesterly flow across this stronger
buoyancy appears to be the primary feed for robust convection that
will soon move southeast across the Arrowhead. A narrow window of
opportunity exists for isolated severe wind/hail before convection
interacts with a much cooler/more stable air mass near Lake
Superior.
...Western US...
One notable short-wave trough has topped the western US ridge over
south-central MT this evening. This feature is suppressing the
height field and will soon turn southeast toward the northern High
Plains. Several clusters of strong/isolated severe thunderstorms
will likely continue ahead of this feature, primarily along the
MT/WY border region.
Another possible weak mid-level disturbance is digging
south-southeast across the NE Panhandle/northeast CO. Robust
thunderstorm clusters should spread across eastern CO this evening
in response to this feature.
Convection is more isolated across the Mogollon Rim over
northern/central AZ this evening than the last few nights.
Cloud-bearing wind fields are also not as supportive for this
convection to spread appreciably off the higher terrain as previous
nights. Even so, gusty winds may continue to be noted with storms
extending into the lower CO River Valley region.
..Darrow.. 08/20/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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