Fargo, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...Jamestown, ND...Valley City, ND...
MARGINAL
32,585
506,248
Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Fergus Falls, MN...Brainerd, MN...Bemidji, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
2,380
2,512
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
15,528
330,143
Fargo, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...Jamestown, ND...Valley City, ND...
5 %
29,705
481,094
Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Fergus Falls, MN...Brainerd, MN...Bemidji, MN...
SPC AC 240058
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT NEAR THE
I-94 CORRIDOR OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong storms may develop this evening into the overnight hours near
the I-94 corridor of North Dakota and adjacent portions of western
Minnesota, posing a risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts.
...01Z Outlook Update...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorm activity across the nation has
largely been supported by instability driven by daytime heating.
Activity is generally either in the process of weakening, or
expected to weaken within the next hour or so, with any lingering
severe weather potential becoming increasingly isolated in nature.
A nocturnal increase in thunderstorm development does still appear
probable across parts of North Dakota into Minnesota later this
evening. This may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a
subtle mid-level perturbation rounding the crest of the prominent
subtropical ridging, near the southern/southwestern periphery of a
significant short wave digging within the mid-latitude westerlies,
across Manitoba into northwestern Quebec.
The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that substantive strengthening of
a southerly 850 jet across the higher plains may commence by 04-05Z,
east of the Black Hills toward central North Dakota, before
gradually veering to southwesterly overnight. Strongest low-level
warm advection may become focused along a corridor near or just
north of the North/South Dakota border area. However, it appears
that a plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air will result in the
corridor of primary thunderstorm development being displaced farther
to the (north) cool side of the southward advancing surface cold
front, near or just north of the I-94 corridor of North Dakota into
adjacent portions of western Minnesota. Still, thermodynamic
profiles characterized by modestly steep mid-level lapse rates,
sizable CAPE, and relatively dry sub-cloud air, coupled with
moderately strong cloud-bearing layer shear, may become supportive
of storms capable of producing severe hail and locally strong
surface gusts.
In association with Hurricane Marco, it now appears that enlarging
low-level hodographs, boundary-layer destabilization, and lift
supportive of increasing potential for tornadoes will probably not
occur inland of southeastern Louisiana coastal areas until after 12Z
Monday. However, there may be sufficient strengthening of low-level
shear and instability to support occasional weak to modest updraft
rotation within cells over coastal waters between Louisiana and the
Florida Big Bend overnight.
..Kerr.. 08/24/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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