Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
156,022
29,043,291
Detroit, MI...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
33,253
10,587,486
Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Grand Rapids, MI...Warren, MI...Sterling Heights, MI...
SPC AC 290109
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST WI
INTO LOWER MI...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across lower Michigan this
evening. A brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain
possible across the Tennessee Valley this evening. Isolated severe
thunderstorms are also possible across a broad area of the Great
Lakes, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic regions through much of the night.
...TN Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
Convection will likely persist through much of the evening across a
broad area from the TN Valley into the Mid Atlantic. Across the TN
Valley, low/mid-level shear will remain enhanced ahead of the
remnant circulation of Laura. While instability will remain weak,
the strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind and
perhaps a tornado into the late evening.
Further east into the Mid Atlantic region, scattered thunderstorms
will likely persist through much of the night, with gradually
increasing effective shear supporting some modest storm organization
with a corresponding threat of locally damaging wind and a brief
tornado or two. See MCD 1620 for more information.
...Midwest into the Lower Great Lakes...
Some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is possible
into lower MI, as a cold front progresses into the region. Moderate
instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support some storm
organization with a corresponding threat of hail and locally
damaging wind this evening. Toward the end of the period, modestly
organized convection may spread into western NY and perhaps far
northwest PA, with a corresponding threat of isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts.
...Southeast CO into the OK Panhandle and southwest KS...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may pose a risk of localized
hail/strong wind gusts from southeast CO into the OK Panhandle and
southwest KS this evening. Late tonight, convection will likely
persist but become increasingly elevated, with a diminishing severe
threat, though isolated instances of hail or strong wind gusts
cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms overnight.
..Dean.. 08/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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