New York, NY...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
New York, NY...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
34,871
1,267,284
Amarillo, TX...Fort Smith, AR...Hot Springs, AR...Russellville, AR...Benton, AR...
5 %
175,122
19,241,321
Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...
SPC AC 300102
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Threat for damaging wind will persist across southern New England
for the next few hours. A damaging wind threat, with some isolated
hail, will also continue tonight from the Texas Panhandle through
southern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas.
...01Z Update...
...Southern Plains...
Ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across the TX
Panhandle for at least the next few hours. Overall character of the
cluster appears slightly better organized and the potential exists
for this system to continue its upscale growth in a more mature MCS.
Recent surface analysis places the from just southwest of AMA
southeastward into northwestern portions of north-central TX and
then back northeastward through southeast OK and into north-central
AR. This front could act to augment ascent within and ahead of the
convective line. Additionally, the warm and moist low-level
conditions in the vicinity of the front are contributing to strong
instability. As such, this frontal zone may act as favorable
corridor for persistence of the ongoing MCS. With this is mind, 15%
wind probabilities were introduced along much of the Red River.
Primary severe threat in this area will be strong wind gusts.
Storms ongoing over portions of southeast OK and adjacent
west-central/southwest AR have been mostly outflow dominant, but
have recently also shown signs of upscale growth. Strong buoyancy is
supporting intense updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts, and
perhaps even isolated hail, despite the predominantly pulse storm
mode.
...Southern New England...
The threat for damaging wind gusts will continue from the next hour
or so across portions of MA, CT, and central NY ahead of the line of
storms moving through southern New England. Intensity of these
storms is expected to gradually diminish as nocturnal stabilization
continues.
..Mosier.. 08/30/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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