SPC AC 311630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

   Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MO TO NORTH TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight,
   mainly from southern Missouri southwest into north Texas. Damaging
   winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are the expected hazards.

   ...South-central States...
   A cluster of strong to locally severe thunderstorms is ongoing in
   MO, while remnants of a decayed cluster are shifting east from
   eastern AR. Damaging winds will remain the primary hazard with the
   northern cluster as it likely spreads across the rest of southern MO
   through mid-afternoon. It should weaken as it encounters the
   outflow/recently overturned air mass in AR. Locally damaging winds
   may also occur with potential intensification along remnant outflows
   that shift east of the Lower MS Valley towards the TN Valley through
   the afternoon.

   Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
   just ahead of a pronounced cold front that currently arcs from
   southeast KS into the TX South Plains. The most likely corridors of
   initiation at peak heating are over the Low Rolling Plains of
   northwest TX and in central OK. A belt of confluent mid-level
   west-southwesterlies across this portion of the front will support a
   predominant cluster mode. A few supercells are most likely in the
   early initiation phase in the central OK vicinity with large hail to
   around 2 inches and a tornado or two possible. Upscale growth into a
   broader cluster/MCS appears possible into south-central/southeast OK
   vicinity. The high PW/CAPE air mass could support isolated
   significant severe wind gusts in this region during the evening into
   tonight.

   ...Western/central NC vicinity...
   Regenerative convection along the southern periphery of a broader
   stratiform region in VA may pose a risk for localized damaging winds
   into early evening. Northern SC into central NC may have the most
   persistent area of convection as downstream boundary-layer heating
   is more pronounced relative to the pervasive cloudiness closer to
   the higher terrain. Poor mid-level lapse rates sampled in area 12Z
   soundings and stronger low-level flow confined north in the lee of
   the central Appalachians suggest that convective vigor should remain
   limited.

   ..Grams/Bentley.. 08/31/2020

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