Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...
MARGINAL
120,574
14,985,691
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
6,290
369,603
Norman, OK...Shawnee, OK...Ada, OK...
2 %
32,352
2,427,834
Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
65,950
4,639,256
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
54,436
4,029,244
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...
5 %
116,673
12,357,351
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
SPC AC 010059
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening into
tonight across Oklahoma and from southwest into northeast Texas.
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. A
tornado or two is also possible.
...01Z Update...
...Southern Plains...
Recent surface analysis places a stalled cold front from southeast
KS southwestward through southwest OK and adjacent northwest TX.
Strong to severe thunderstorms have been ongoing for several hours
ahead of this front across OK and into the TX Big Country. Low-level
southerly flow will strengthen over the next several hours, and the
expectation is for redevelopment to continue across this area as
warm-air advection occurs across storm outflows. Wind profiles
support organized storm structures and strong instability is
expected to remain in place. As such, the potential for supercells
will persist. Hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threat. A
tornado or two is also possible, but the clustered storm mode and
tendency for redevelopment over the same areas suggests storm
interference is likely, limiting the potential for tornadogenesis.
There is also some potential for eventual upscale growth into one or
more organized convective lines but current radar trends suggest it
could be several hours before this occurs.
...Elsewhere...
A damaging wind gust or two remains possible across portions of the
central Carolinas. Ongoing thunderstorms scattered across the
Southeast are expected to gradually diminish over the next few hours
as nocturnal stabilization continues.
..Mosier.. 09/01/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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