Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Lubbock, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...
SPC AC 011625
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2020
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PANHANDLE TO BIG
COUNTRY OF TX...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind, and a
tornado or two are most likely to occur between 4 PM and 12 AM CDT
in northwest Texas from the Panhandle to the Big Country.
...Southern Great Plains...
In the wake of an ongoing MCS across eastern/southern OK into north
TX, pockets of stronger boundary-layer heating are underway across
northwest TX into western OK. A plume of moderate buoyancy is
expected to develop from the Big Country north into the eastern
Panhandles by late afternoon. With a shortwave trough approaching
from northwest NM/southwest CO, low-level convergence should become
maximized near the I-27 corridor. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the TX Panhandle and farther
south/southeast along the remnant outflow from the midday MCS near
the Big Country. A swath of 30-35 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across
both regions should support a few supercells and multicell clusters
capable of producing large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or
two. Clusters should amalgamate into a broader MCS this evening into
tonight across parts of west-central and north TX. Convective
outflow will gradually shift south and become increasingly displaced
from the stronger deep-layer shear, likely limiting the overall
magnitude of the severe risk overnight.
...Mid-South to the Midwest...
Multiple clusters/MCS are ongoing from IL south into the Mid-South
and then southwest into eastern OK/western AR/north TX. A belt of
stronger 700-500 mb flow will probably remain displaced to the west
of the leading convection. Pockets of moderate buoyancy appear most
likely to develop across southern Lower MI into northern IN and
across southern AR into western TN. Morning guidance lacks a signal
for organized clustering to occur across the region suggesting that
a broad cat 1/MRGL risk for mainly localized damaging winds appears
warranted. A conditional risk for a brief tornado or two still
exists in a portion of the Mid-South to Lower OH Valley with any
late afternoon thunderstorm redevelopment where 30-35 kt 850-mb
winds overlap with the northern periphery of moderate buoyancy.
..Grams/Hart.. 09/01/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
