SPC AC 030035

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

   Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST PA
   TO NORTHEAST VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Locally damaging winds and an isolated tornado remain possible from
   northern Virginia to southeast Pennsylvania through 10 PM EDT.

   ...VA to Southeast PA...

   Remnant MCV that originated over the lower MS Valley Tuesday evening
   has tracked along the OH River and is currently over southeastern
   PA, just northeast of CKY. Convection has recently become a bit more
   organized south of this feature extending across northeast MD. The
   progressive nature of the MCV, and the forward speed of the squall
   line, suggest the greatest severe threat will spread across
   southeast PA/northeast MD/northern DE into southern NJ over the next
   few hours. This activity should weaken thereafter as it encounters
   less buoyant air mass near the coast. 

   ...Mid South...

   Southern-most branch of stronger mid-level flow continues along a
   corridor from northeast TX-AR-TN Valley. Radar and satellite imagery
   suggest a secondary disturbance over AR is embedded within this
   flow. Locally strong-severe thunderstorms may continue ahead of this
   feature, especially given the southwesterly LLJ that should be
   maintained across TN/KY through sunrise.

   ...North Dakota...

   Surface front is surging southeast across eastern MT/ND this
   evening. Weak convection has developed along this boundary where
   steep low-level lapse rates remain conducive for the transport of
   stronger flow aloft within more focused downdrafts. 00z sounding
   from BIS supports this with near dry adiabatic lapse rates through
   4km. Loss of daytime heating should lessen this risk over the next
   few hours.

   ..Darrow.. 09/03/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z