Philadelphia, PA...Elizabeth, NJ...Toms River, NJ...Edison, NJ...Trenton, NJ...
MARGINAL
41,137
25,879,680
New York, NY...San Antonio, TX...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
3,338
691,750
Atlantic City, NJ...Dover, DE...Millville, NJ...Pleasantville, NJ...Ocean City, NJ...
2 %
8,884
12,066,377
Philadelphia, PA...Elizabeth, NJ...Toms River, NJ...Edison, NJ...Trenton, NJ...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
12,213
12,570,945
Philadelphia, PA...Elizabeth, NJ...Toms River, NJ...Edison, NJ...Trenton, NJ...
5 %
41,228
26,037,016
New York, NY...San Antonio, TX...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,278
12,846,276
Philadelphia, PA...Elizabeth, NJ...Toms River, NJ...Edison, NJ...Trenton, NJ...
SPC AC 040042
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic this evening. A few strong wind gusts will be
possible across parts of south-central Texas.
...Mid-Atlantic...
The latest radar imagery a cluster of strong thunderstorms ongoing
from Maryland northeastward into New Jersey. The storms are located
on the northern edge of moderate instability. A shortwave trough is
evident on water vapor imagery across the Mid-Atlantic. These two
factors may maintain thunderstorm intensity for another hour or two
before the convection moves offshore. The DIX WSR-88D VWP in New
Jersey has 0-6 km shear near 50 kt with strong low-level shear. This
may be enough to continue a tornado threat with the stronger storms
as they approach the Atlantic coast over the next hour or so. Wind
damage could also accompany the more intense cells.
...South-central Texas...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of south-central
and southwest Texas early this evening. The storms are located on
the northern edge of a gradient of strong instability. RAP analysis
shows 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This combined with the
instability may be enough for a few strong wind gusts for a couple
more hours this evening. However, much of the convection is located
behind an outflow boundary, so any severe threat should be marginal.
..Broyles.. 09/04/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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