St. Louis, MO...Lubbock, TX...St. Charles, MO...St. Peters, MO...Florissant, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,628
2,959,708
St. Louis, MO...St. Charles, MO...St. Peters, MO...Florissant, MO...Chesterfield, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 081245
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2020
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur this
afternoon and early evening across parts of Missouri/Illinois and/or
southeast New Mexico and West Texas.
...Missouri/Illinois...
Mid-level height rises are generally expected over the region, and
the front across central portions of Missouri and Illinois will not
be overly southeastward-progressive through the afternoon/early
evening. Strong heating south of the front and sufficient
convergence near it should allow for widely scattered thunderstorm
development along the front this afternoon, although much of the
convection will otherwise be focused on the cool side of the
boundary. While low/mid-tropospheric winds and deep-layer shear will
be weak (30 kt or less), a few strong/briefly severe thunderstorms
could occur, primarily with any convective development that
originates on the warm/moderately unstable side of the boundary this
afternoon.
...Eastern New Mexico/west Texas...
A strong cold front will continue to make a steady southeastward
progression across the region through this afternoon and evening.
Although vertical shear near/ahead of the front will be weak,
moderate instability may allow for a few strong or locally severe
thunderstorms with expected near-frontal development during mid/late
afternoon through early evening. Steepening mid-level lapse rates
and strengthening effective shear in the post-frontal environment
could also support some elevated thunderstorms with hail potential.
..Guyer/Mosier.. 09/08/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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