St. Louis, MO...Lubbock, TX...Springfield, IL...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
61,758
4,174,568
St. Louis, MO...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Decatur, IL...St. Charles, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 081628
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2020
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WEST TX...AND FROM NORTHEASTERN OK TO
CENTRAL IL...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur this
afternoon and early evening across parts of west Texas, and from
northeastern Oklahoma to central Illinois.
...Southern Plains the mid MS Valley this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel trough is beginning to evolve into a closed low over UT,
with only slow southward movement expected through early Wednesday.
East of the midlevel low, a cold air damming scenario is underway
across the southern High Plains, while the cold front is moving more
slowly to the south from southeastern KS into MO/IL. Boundary-layer
dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s are present south of the front
from west TX to MO, which will combine with afternoon temperatures
of 85-90 F to result in moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg)
and little convective inhibition.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and to the cool
side of the front by mid-late afternoon. Faster movement of the
front across west TX and more southerly flow aloft both suggest that
any frontal convection will quickly become elevated to the cool side
of the boundary across west TX, aside from convection forming this
afternoon over the higher terrain in southwest TX. Slower frontal
movement and weaker flow support convection remaining closer to the
surface boundary from MO northeastward, with a transition area
across OK. Vertical shear in the warm sector will be relatively
weak, which in combination with steep low-level lapse rates and
DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg will primarily favor multicell clusters
capable of producing isolated downbursts from about 20-01z.
..Thompson/Moore.. 09/08/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
