St. Louis, MO...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
68,100
4,573,142
St. Louis, MO...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
36,217
995,881
Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...Odessa, TX...
SPC AC 090053
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2020
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND FROM THE OZARKS
TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur early this
evening across parts of west Texas, and from northeastern Oklahoma
to central Illinois. A few marginally severe wind gusts may also
occur in parts of southeast Arizona.
...Northeast Oklahoma/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow across much of
the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is located from
northeast Oklahoma northeastward into southern Illinois. Several
small clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along and just behind
the front. The storms are moving northeastward along a gradient of
instability where MLCAPE is generally from 750 to 1500 J/kg. In
spite of the instability, the RAP shows relatively weak deep-layer
shear. This will keep any severe threat on the marginal side early
this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will make a few strong
wind gusts possible along the leading edge of short line segments.
...Southern High Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level low
over the Four Corners region. To the southeast of the low across the
southern High Plains, mid-level winds are south-southwesterly. At
the surface, a cold front is located from west Texas northeastward
into southwest Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the front
from near Midland northeastward to near Wichita Falls. Although
moderate instability is present in parts of west Texas, deep-layer
shear is relatively weak. For this reason, any severe threat will
remain marginal early this evening. The strong line segments could
produce a few marginally severe wind gusts.
...Southeast Arizona...
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level low over the Four
Corners region. South of the upper-level low, flow was cyclonic
westerly across much of Arizona. At the surface, an axis of
maximized low-level moisture and instability is present in
south-central Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along
this axis instability, in which the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Tuscon shows 0-6 km shear
near 30 kt with westerly flow in the low to mid-levels. This will
support a marginal wind damage threat with the stronger cells for a
few more hours this evening.
..Broyles.. 09/09/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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