Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
26,466
2,210,795
Mobile, AL...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...Panama City, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 150521
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes may occur later today across portions of the central
Gulf Coast in association with Hurricane Sally.
...Hurricane Sally...
Hurricane Sally continues its very slow west-northwest movement
toward the central Gulf Coast. Deepest convection remains confined
to the north-east-southeast periphery of the center where the
strongest updrafts continue to occasionally produce lightning. These
stronger updrafts appear sensitive to the higher-buoyancy air mass
located just offshore where mid 70s surface dew points are more
common. With offshore flow strengthening across LA, this should
limit instability along the western hemisphere of the cyclone, and
the threat of tornadoes appears less than earlier forecast. Unless
there is appreciable change to the speed/track of Sally, current
thinking is stronger convective bands will remain confined to the
AL/FL Panhandle near-coastal regions where somewhat stronger
instability is expected to eventually spread inland. The risk for
tornadoes should increase after 18z if the center of circulation can
progress north another 50+ miles, as the strongest SRH/instability
remain confined closer to the low center.
..Darrow/Dean.. 09/15/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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