Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Prichard, AL...
MARGINAL
11,246
747,710
Tallahassee, FL...Pascagoula, MS...Enterprise, AL...Moss Point, MS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
14,823
1,539,824
Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Prichard, AL...
2 %
11,088
719,253
Tallahassee, FL...Pascagoula, MS...Enterprise, AL...Moss Point, MS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
25,902
2,258,403
Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 151944
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes may occur across portions of southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through tonight, in association with Hurricane
Sally.
...20Z Update...
...AL/FL Panhandle - Hurricane Sally...
Most recent position from NHC had the center of Hurricane Sally
about 105 miles south of Mobile Alabama. Tornado threat associated
with this tropical cyclone will continue across coastal Alabama and
much of the Florida Peninsula throughout the evening. Only change to
the ongoing outlook was to extend probabilities slightly eastward to
account for the ongoing rainband approaching that area. More
storm-scale details about the near-term threat associated with Sally
can be found in Mesoscale Discussion #1691.
..Mosier.. 09/15/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020/
...AL/FL...
Hurricane Sally continues to move very slowly northward toward
Mobile Bay. VAD profiles and model forecasts show strong low-level
shear will be present across parts of southern AL and the FL
Panhandle this afternoon and tonight, with the potential for
transient rotating convection within the outer bands as they move
ashore. This threat has been limited thus far today, but is
expected to increase by late this afternoon and evening as the
center of Sally drifts northward. Please refer to Mesoscale
Discussion #1690 for further short-term details.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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