Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
25,902
2,258,403
Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 160047
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes may occur across portions of southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle tonight in association with Hurricane Sally.
...Hurricane Sally...
Longer-looped radar imagery suggests Hurricane Sally is beginning to
drift a bit east as it edges very slowly north toward the coast.
Center of circulation is about 50 mi south-southeast of Mobile Bay
and if the current movement is maintained, landfall may occur near
the AL/FL Panhandle border early in the day2 period. Deeper
convective bands with lightning remain confined to the eastern
semicircle of this system where higher buoyancy is observed. With
offshore flow expected to be maintained west of MOB, have opted to
lower tornado probabilities west of the circulation center. As upper
70s surface dew points begin to spread inland across the FL
Panhandle, there should be an increase in stronger
convection/supercell activity. Tornado threat should gradually
increase across this region as the night progresses.
..Darrow.. 09/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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