SPC AC 161606

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1106 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

   Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN
   ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across portions of the
   Florida Panhandle, northwestern Florida, southeastern Alabama, and
   southern Georgia.

   ...FL/GA/AL...
   Hurricane Sally is moving slowly northeastward over the western tip
   of the FL Panhandle.  Local VAD profiles and model guidance show
   significant low-level shear and storm-relative helicity are present
   in vicinity of the north-south oriented outer bands that are
   affecting the central Panhandle.  These bands of convection, along
   with the development of other activity will spread into portions of
   southwest GA this afternoon.  Given the vertical shear profiles,
   rotating storms and supercell structures are expected. The highest
   theta-e air mass (mid-upper 70s dewpoints) is restricted to the FL
   panhandle, and model guidance does not provide high confidence that
   this air will move very far inland into southern GA.  Considered
   adding higher tornado probabilities and an ENH risk for a small area
   of the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA, but will maintain SLGT
   given the latest HREF/HRRR solutions.  The threat will shift
   eastward overnight into south-central GA and north FL.

   Please refer to mesoscale discussion #1696 for further short-term
   details.

   ..Hart/Lyons.. 09/16/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z